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The graveyard of failed microservices migrations is vast. Industry studies suggest that 60-70% of migration initiatives either fail outright or deliver far less value than anticipated. The pattern is painfully consistent: organizations rush into extraction without proper assessment, prioritize based on political convenience rather than strategic value, and find themselves years later maintaining both a legacy monolith and a constellation of poorly-designed services.
What separates successful migrations from expensive failures isn't technical brilliance—it's methodical assessment and disciplined prioritization. Before writing a single line of migration code, elite engineering organizations invest significant effort understanding exactly what they're migrating, why each component matters, and in what order extraction will deliver maximum value with minimum risk.
This page teaches the systematic approach to migration assessment used by organizations like Amazon, Netflix, and Uber during their transformational migrations. You'll learn to create comprehensive service inventories, map complex dependencies, score migration complexity, assess business value, evaluate organizational readiness, and apply sophisticated prioritization frameworks that balance risk, value, and technical feasibility.
Many organizations approach migration with a dangerously simplistic model: "We'll just break apart the monolith piece by piece." This view fundamentally misunderstands the complexity of established systems. A monolith that has been in production for years is not a neatly organized collection of independent modules—it's an ecosystem of interconnected components, implicit contracts, hidden dependencies, and accumulated business logic that often exists only in the code.
Why Assessment Is Non-Negotiable:
A major e-commerce company attempted to extract their payment processing into a microservice without proper assessment. They discovered mid-migration that payment logic was intertwined with order management, inventory, fraud detection, and tax calculation through 47 different code paths. The extraction took 18 months instead of the planned 3, required rewrites of 5 additional components, and caused 3 production incidents impacting $4.2M in transactions.
A service inventory is a comprehensive catalog of all functional capabilities within your monolith that could potentially become independent services. This isn't a code-level analysis—it's a business-capability-level mapping that identifies natural service boundaries based on domain concepts rather than current code organization.
The Inventory Process:
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// Example: Service Inventory Data Structureinterface ServiceCandidate { id: string; name: string; businessDomain: string; // Business context description: string; businessOwner: string; criticalityLevel: 'critical' | 'high' | 'medium' | 'low'; revenueImpact: 'direct' | 'indirect' | 'none'; // Technical mapping codeModules: CodeModule[]; dataEntities: DataEntity[]; externalDependencies: ExternalSystem[]; // Ownership owningTeam: string; contributingTeams: string[]; domainExperts: string[]; // Current state metrics changeFrequency: 'daily' | 'weekly' | 'monthly' | 'quarterly'; incidentFrequency: number; // per quarter technicalDebtScore: number; // 1-10 testCoveragePercent: number; // Migration considerations extractionComplexity: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high' | 'extreme'; estimatedEffortWeeks: number; riskFactors: string[];} interface CodeModule { path: string; linesOfCode: number; language: string; age: Date; lastModified: Date; contributors: string[];} interface DataEntity { name: string; tableName: string; rowCount: number; sizeGB: number; ownershipType: 'owns' | 'reads' | 'writes' | 'shared'; referencedBy: string[]; // other service candidate IDs} // Example inventory entryconst userManagementService: ServiceCandidate = { id: 'svc-user-management', name: 'User Management', businessDomain: 'Identity & Access', description: 'Handles user registration, authentication, profile management, and access control', businessOwner: 'Head of Product', criticalityLevel: 'critical', revenueImpact: 'indirect', codeModules: [ { path: 'src/auth/*', linesOfCode: 12500, language: 'Java', age: new Date('2018-03-15'), lastModified: new Date('2024-01-10'), contributors: ['alice', 'bob', 'charlie'] }, { path: 'src/users/*', linesOfCode: 8200, language: 'Java', age: new Date('2017-06-22'), lastModified: new Date('2024-01-12'), contributors: ['alice', 'diana'] }, ], dataEntities: [ { name: 'User', tableName: 'users', rowCount: 2500000, sizeGB: 4.2, ownershipType: 'owns', referencedBy: ['svc-orders', 'svc-payments', 'svc-audit'] }, { name: 'Role', tableName: 'roles', rowCount: 150, sizeGB: 0.001, ownershipType: 'owns', referencedBy: ['svc-admin', 'svc-audit'] }, { name: 'Permission', tableName: 'permissions', rowCount: 500, sizeGB: 0.002, ownershipType: 'owns', referencedBy: ['svc-admin'] }, ], externalDependencies: [ { name: 'OAuth Provider', type: 'identity' }, { name: 'Email Service', type: 'notification' }, ], owningTeam: 'Platform Team', contributingTeams: ['Security Team', 'Mobile Team'], domainExperts: ['Alice (auth)', 'Bob (security)'], changeFrequency: 'weekly', incidentFrequency: 2, technicalDebtScore: 6, testCoveragePercent: 72, extractionComplexity: 'high', estimatedEffortWeeks: 16, riskFactors: [ 'Central dependency for all other services', 'Active session management complexity', 'Token format used across entire system', ],};The most effective inventories emerge from cross-functional workshops, not isolated technical analysis. Bring together engineering leads, product managers, and business stakeholders. Engineers understand technical boundaries; product managers understand feature groupings; business stakeholders understand value streams. The intersection produces service candidates that align with business reality, not just code organization.
Dependencies are the primary source of migration complexity. A thorough dependency analysis reveals the true interconnectedness of your system and identifies which extractions are straightforward versus which will propagate changes across the codebase.
Types of Dependencies to Identify:
| Dependency Type | Description | Detection Method | Migration Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Code Dependencies | Direct function/method calls, class inheritance, interface implementations | Static code analysis, import graphs | Must be replaced with API calls or shared libraries |
| Data Dependencies | Shared database tables, foreign key relationships, transaction scope | Schema analysis, query logs | Requires data migration strategy, API-based access, or eventual consistency |
| Event Dependencies | In-process event handlers, observer patterns, callbacks | Code analysis, runtime tracing | Must become distributed events with delivery guarantees |
| State Dependencies | Shared in-memory caches, session state, thread-local data | Runtime analysis, profiling | Requires externalized state management (Redis, etc.) |
| Timing Dependencies | Assumed ordering of operations, synchronous expectations | Transaction analysis, integration tests | Requires explicit coordination or saga patterns |
| Contract Dependencies | Implicit API contracts, assumed data formats, version expectations | Interface documentation, consumer analysis | Requires explicit versioning and contract testing |
Dependency Graph Construction:
Visualizing dependencies as a directed graph reveals critical patterns:
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// Dependency Graph Analysis for Migration Planning interface DependencyNode { serviceId: string; afferentCoupling: number; // incoming dependencies (fan-in) efferentCoupling: number; // outgoing dependencies (fan-out)} interface DependencyEdge { from: string; to: string; type: 'code' | 'data' | 'event' | 'state' | 'timing'; strength: 'weak' | 'strong' | 'critical'; frequency: number; // calls per minute in production} class DependencyAnalyzer { private nodes: Map<string, DependencyNode> = new Map(); private edges: DependencyEdge[] = []; // Calculate instability: ratio of outgoing to total dependencies // High instability (close to 1) = depends on many, few depend on it // Low instability (close to 0) = few outgoing deps, many incoming calculateInstability(serviceId: string): number { const node = this.nodes.get(serviceId); if (!node) return 0; const total = node.afferentCoupling + node.efferentCoupling; return total === 0 ? 0 : node.efferentCoupling / total; } // Find services that would be easiest to extract (leaf nodes) findExtractionCandidates(): string[] { return Array.from(this.nodes.entries()) .filter(([_, node]) => node.afferentCoupling === 0) // nothing depends on it .sort((a, b) => a[1].efferentCoupling - b[1].efferentCoupling) // fewest outgoing deps first .map(([id]) => id); } // Find core services that everything depends on (extract last) findCoreServices(): string[] { const avgAfferent = Array.from(this.nodes.values()) .reduce((sum, n) => sum + n.afferentCoupling, 0) / this.nodes.size; return Array.from(this.nodes.entries()) .filter(([_, node]) => node.afferentCoupling > avgAfferent * 2) .map(([id]) => id); } // Detect dependency cycles (problematic for extraction) detectCycles(): string[][] { const cycles: string[][] = []; const visited = new Set<string>(); const recursionStack = new Set<string>(); const dfs = (nodeId: string, path: string[]): void => { visited.add(nodeId); recursionStack.add(nodeId); const outgoing = this.edges .filter(e => e.from === nodeId) .map(e => e.to); for (const neighbor of outgoing) { if (!visited.has(neighbor)) { dfs(neighbor, [...path, nodeId]); } else if (recursionStack.has(neighbor)) { // Found cycle const cycleStart = path.indexOf(neighbor); cycles.push(path.slice(cycleStart)); } } recursionStack.delete(nodeId); }; for (const nodeId of this.nodes.keys()) { if (!visited.has(nodeId)) { dfs(nodeId, []); } } return cycles; } // Calculate extraction order minimizing cross-cutting changes calculateExtractionOrder(): string[] { const order: string[] = []; const remaining = new Set(this.nodes.keys()); const extracted = new Set<string>(); while (remaining.size > 0) { // Find node with fewest dependencies on remaining nodes let bestCandidate: string | null = null; let bestScore = Infinity; for (const nodeId of remaining) { const depsOnRemaining = this.edges .filter(e => e.from === nodeId && remaining.has(e.to)) .length; if (depsOnRemaining < bestScore) { bestScore = depsOnRemaining; bestCandidate = nodeId; } } if (bestCandidate) { order.push(bestCandidate); remaining.delete(bestCandidate); extracted.add(bestCandidate); } } return order; }}Static code analysis reveals explicit dependencies, but production runtime analysis reveals actual usage patterns. A function may be technically dependent on another, but if it's called once per week while another is called 10,000 times per minute, their migration implications are radically different. Instrument your production environment to capture call graphs, frequency, and latency characteristics.
Not all services are equally difficult to extract. A rigorous complexity scoring system quantifies extraction difficulty, enabling informed prioritization decisions and accurate effort estimation.
Multi-Dimensional Complexity Assessment:
| Dimension | Low (1-3) | Medium (4-6) | High (7-10) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Code Coupling | Isolated module with clear interfaces | Some shared utilities, moderate coupling | Deep entanglement with multiple modules |
| Data Coupling | Own tables, no foreign keys to other domains | Some shared lookup tables | Transactions span multiple domains |
| Team Complexity | Single team owns entirely | 2-3 teams contribute occasionally | Shared ownership across 4+ teams |
| Business Logic Complexity | Simple CRUD operations | Moderate business rules | Complex workflows, state machines |
| External Integrations | No external systems | 1-2 external APIs or services | Multiple external dependencies |
| Performance Criticality | Background processing, tolerant of latency | User-facing, moderate SLAs | Real-time, strict latency requirements |
| Data Volume | < 1GB, < 10K transactions/day | 1-100GB, 10K-1M transactions/day | 100GB, > 1M transactions/day |
| Test Coverage | 80% coverage, comprehensive integration tests | 50-80% coverage, basic integration tests | < 50% coverage, minimal testing |
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// Comprehensive Complexity Scoring System interface ComplexityDimension { name: string; weight: number; // relative importance (0-1) score: number; // assessed difficulty (1-10) rationale: string;} interface ComplexityAssessment { serviceId: string; assessedDate: Date; assessedBy: string[]; dimensions: ComplexityDimension[]; // Calculated fields weightedScore: number; confidenceLevel: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high'; riskFlags: string[];} function calculateComplexityScore(dimensions: ComplexityDimension[]): number { const totalWeight = dimensions.reduce((sum, d) => sum + d.weight, 0); const weightedSum = dimensions.reduce((sum, d) => sum + d.score * d.weight, 0); return Math.round((weightedSum / totalWeight) * 10) / 10;} // Example assessment for Order Processing serviceconst orderProcessingComplexity: ComplexityAssessment = { serviceId: 'svc-order-processing', assessedDate: new Date('2024-01-15'), assessedBy: ['Tech Lead', 'Architect', 'Product Owner'], dimensions: [ { name: 'Code Coupling', weight: 0.15, score: 8, rationale: 'Order processing touches inventory, payments, shipping, notifications, and analytics. Over 200 cross-module dependencies identified.', }, { name: 'Data Coupling', weight: 0.20, score: 9, rationale: 'Orders table has foreign keys to users, products, inventory, payments. Single transactions update 6 tables across 3 bounded contexts.', }, { name: 'Team Complexity', weight: 0.10, score: 6, rationale: 'Primarily owned by Order Team, but Payments Team and Inventory Team make regular changes.', }, { name: 'Business Logic Complexity', weight: 0.15, score: 9, rationale: 'Complex state machine with 14 states. Pricing rules, discount application, tax calculation, inventory reservation logic all embedded.', }, { name: 'External Integrations', weight: 0.10, score: 7, rationale: 'Integrates with 3 payment providers, 4 shipping carriers, tax calculation API, fraud detection service.', }, { name: 'Performance Criticality', weight: 0.15, score: 9, rationale: 'Checkout latency directly impacts conversion. Current p99 latency: 450ms. Business requires < 500ms p99.', }, { name: 'Data Volume', weight: 0.10, score: 8, rationale: '85GB current data. 250K orders/day. Black Friday peaks at 1.5M orders. Requires careful data migration.', }, { name: 'Test Coverage', weight: 0.05, score: 5, rationale: '68% unit test coverage. Integration tests exist but are flaky. No contract tests for downstream consumers.', }, ], weightedScore: 7.9, // Calculated confidenceLevel: 'medium', riskFlags: [ 'Data coupling score > 8: requires extensive data migration planning', 'Business logic score > 8: high regression risk during extraction', 'Performance criticality > 8: cannot tolerate latency increases during migration', ],}; // Complexity categories for prioritizationfunction categorizeComplexity(score: number): string { if (score <= 3) return 'Quick Win'; if (score <= 5) return 'Moderate Effort'; if (score <= 7) return 'Significant Investment'; if (score <= 8.5) return 'Major Initiative'; return 'Strategic Program';}Complexity scoring improves dramatically after extracting your first few services. Use early extractions to calibrate your scoring model—compare estimated complexity against actual effort. Most organizations find they consistently underestimate data coupling and business logic complexity while overestimating code coupling difficulty.
Technical complexity tells half the story. The other half is business value—the benefit the organization receives from successfully extracting a service. Prioritization requires balancing both dimensions.
Value Dimensions to Consider:
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// Business Value Assessment Framework interface BusinessValueDimension { name: string; weight: number; score: number; // 1-10 quantification?: string; // Measurable impact when possible} interface BusinessValueAssessment { serviceId: string; dimensions: BusinessValueDimension[]; totalValueScore: number; strategicAlignment: 'critical' | 'important' | 'nice-to-have'; timeToValue: 'immediate' | 'short-term' | 'long-term';} // Example: Notification Service Value Assessmentconst notificationServiceValue: BusinessValueAssessment = { serviceId: 'svc-notifications', dimensions: [ { name: 'Development Velocity', weight: 0.20, score: 9, quantification: 'Currently 3-week release cycle due to monolith deployment. Independent service could deploy daily.', }, { name: 'Independent Scalability', weight: 0.15, score: 8, quantification: 'Notification volume is 50x user requests. Currently over-provisioning entire monolith for notification load.', }, { name: 'Technology Modernization', weight: 0.10, score: 7, quantification: 'Can migrate from synchronous email sending to async queue-based processing with modern event streaming.', }, { name: 'Team Autonomy', weight: 0.15, score: 9, quantification: 'Communications team currently blocked by platform team for 40% of sprints.', }, { name: 'Reliability Improvement', weight: 0.20, score: 8, quantification: 'Email service timeouts cause 12% of checkout abandonment. Async decoupling eliminates this.', }, { name: 'Cost Optimization', weight: 0.10, score: 6, quantification: 'Estimated $45K/month savings from right-sizing notification infrastructure independently.', }, { name: 'Strategic Enablement', weight: 0.10, score: 7, quantification: 'Enables B2B notification API for enterprise customers - $2M ARR opportunity.', }, ], totalValueScore: 7.9, strategicAlignment: 'critical', timeToValue: 'short-term',}; // Value-Complexity Matrix Calculationinterface PrioritizationQuadrant { name: string; services: string[]; recommendation: string;} function calculateValueComplexityMatrix( valueScores: Map<string, number>, complexityScores: Map<string, number>): PrioritizationQuadrant[] { const services = Array.from(valueScores.keys()); const avgValue = Array.from(valueScores.values()).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / services.length; const avgComplexity = Array.from(complexityScores.values()).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / services.length; return [ { name: 'Quick Wins (High Value, Low Complexity)', services: services.filter(s => valueScores.get(s)! > avgValue && complexityScores.get(s)! < avgComplexity ), recommendation: 'Prioritize immediately. These deliver maximum ROI.', }, { name: 'Strategic Bets (High Value, High Complexity)', services: services.filter(s => valueScores.get(s)! > avgValue && complexityScores.get(s)! >= avgComplexity ), recommendation: 'Plan carefully. Worth the investment but requires significant resources.', }, { name: 'Incremental Improvements (Low Value, Low Complexity)', services: services.filter(s => valueScores.get(s)! <= avgValue && complexityScores.get(s)! < avgComplexity ), recommendation: 'Consider for team skill building or when resources available.', }, { name: 'Avoid (Low Value, High Complexity)', services: services.filter(s => valueScores.get(s)! <= avgValue && complexityScores.get(s)! >= avgComplexity ), recommendation: 'Do not extract unless circumstances change significantly.', }, ];}Abstract value scores are useful for relative comparison, but specific quantification strengthens business cases. 'Improves reliability' is less compelling than 'Eliminates the source of 23% of P1 incidents, reducing annual incident response costs by $180K.' Work with product managers and finance to attach numbers wherever possible.
Technical and business assessments are necessary but not sufficient. Migration success also depends on organizational factors: team skills, cultural readiness, operational capability, and executive support.
Readiness Dimensions:
| Dimension | Questions to Answer | Green Flags | Red Flags |
|---|---|---|---|
| Distributed Systems Skills | Does the team understand eventual consistency, network partitions, and distributed debugging? | Team has built/operated distributed systems before; training programs in place | Team only knows monolithic patterns; no distributed systems experience |
| DevOps Maturity | Can teams independently build, test, deploy, and monitor services? | CI/CD pipelines, infrastructure-as-code, observability stack in place | Manual deployments, shared environments, insufficient monitoring |
| Operational Capabilities | Who will operate services at 3 AM? Is there on-call structure? | Team-based on-call, runbooks, incident response processes defined | Central ops team handles everything; no per-team ownership |
| Cultural Alignment | Do teams embrace ownership? Are they willing to learn new approaches? | Strong ownership culture, growth mindset, experimentation encouraged | Blame culture, change-averse, 'not my job' mentality |
| Executive Support | Is leadership committed to the multi-year journey? | Clear budget commitment, migration metrics in OKRs, visible sponsorship | Migration competes with features; sponsor unclear; funding uncertain |
| Platform Capabilities | Does platform support service independence (container orchestration, service mesh, observability)? | Kubernetes, service mesh, centralized logging/tracing operational | Manual VM provisioning, no container support, limited observability |
Significant readiness gaps should be addressed before major extractions begin. Start with a platform capability initiative, training programs, and pilot projects that build skills without high-stakes pressure. Attempting complex extractions with unprepared teams creates painful failures that undermine future migration efforts.
With inventory, dependencies, complexity, value, and readiness assessed, you can now apply structured prioritization frameworks to sequence your migration. Different frameworks suit different contexts.
The WSJF (Weighted Shortest Job First) Approach:
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// Weighted Shortest Job First (WSJF) for Migration Prioritization interface WSJFScoring { serviceId: string; // Cost of Delay components businessValue: number; // 1-10: Value delivered when extracted timeCriticality: number; // 1-10: Urgency (regulatory, competitive, etc.) riskReductionOpportunity: number; // 1-10: Risk/problem reduction // Job Size extractionEffort: number; // 1-10: T-shirt sized effort // Calculated costOfDelay: number; wsjfScore: number;} function calculateWSJF(scoring: WSJFScoring): number { // Cost of Delay = Business Value + Time Criticality + Risk Reduction const costOfDelay = scoring.businessValue + scoring.timeCriticality + scoring.riskReductionOpportunity; // WSJF = Cost of Delay / Job Size // Higher score = Should be done earlier return costOfDelay / scoring.extractionEffort;} // Example prioritizationconst servicePriorities: WSJFScoring[] = [ { serviceId: 'svc-notifications', businessValue: 8, timeCriticality: 5, riskReductionOpportunity: 9, // High - causes checkout failures extractionEffort: 3, // Relatively isolated costOfDelay: 22, wsjfScore: 7.33, // HIGH PRIORITY }, { serviceId: 'svc-order-processing', businessValue: 9, timeCriticality: 7, riskReductionOpportunity: 8, extractionEffort: 9, // Very complex costOfDelay: 24, wsjfScore: 2.67, // LOWER PRIORITY (high effort) }, { serviceId: 'svc-product-catalog', businessValue: 6, timeCriticality: 4, riskReductionOpportunity: 3, extractionEffort: 4, costOfDelay: 13, wsjfScore: 3.25, // MODERATE }, { serviceId: 'svc-analytics', businessValue: 5, timeCriticality: 2, riskReductionOpportunity: 2, extractionEffort: 2, // Easy - mostly reads costOfDelay: 9, wsjfScore: 4.50, // GOOD QUICK WIN },]; // Sort by WSJF score descending for priority orderconst priorityOrder = servicePriorities .sort((a, b) => b.wsjfScore - a.wsjfScore) .map(s => s.serviceId); // Result: ['svc-notifications', 'svc-analytics', 'svc-product-catalog', 'svc-order-processing']Alternative Prioritization Strategies:
The most effective prioritization combines multiple factors. Use WSJF for overall ranking, but apply dependency constraints (can't extract A before B), organizational constraints (team availability), and strategic windows (align with product releases). The goal is a sequence that's both optimal and executable.
A thorough assessment is worthless if it lives only in the heads of those who conducted it. Proper documentation serves multiple purposes: it creates organizational alignment, enables informed decision-making by leadership, provides a reference during execution, and captures institutional knowledge that outlasts individual contributors.
Key Documentation Artifacts:
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# Migration Assessment Summary## Executive Overview **Assessment Completed**: January 2024**Scope**: E-Commerce Platform Monolith → Microservices**Recommendation**: Proceed with phased migration over 24 months ## Current State - **Monolith Age**: 8 years- **Lines of Code**: 850,000- **Database Size**: 2.3TB across 340 tables- **Daily Transactions**: 1.2M- **Annual Revenue Processed**: $180M ## Service Inventory Summary | Category | Count | Avg Complexity | Avg Value ||----------|-------|----------------|-----------|| Core Commerce | 6 | 7.8 | 8.5 || Supporting | 8 | 4.2 | 5.8 || Generic | 4 | 2.5 | 3.2 || **Total** | **18** | **5.1** | **6.0** | ## Recommended Extraction Sequence ### Phase 1: Foundation (Months 1-6)- **Goal**: Build capabilities, early wins- Notifications Service (WSJF: 7.33)- Analytics Service (WSJF: 4.50)- **Investment**: 2 teams, $400K- **Expected Value**: 15% deployment frequency increase ### Phase 2: Growth (Months 7-14)- **Goal**: Strategic value delivery - Product Catalog Service- Inventory Service- Search Service- **Investment**: 3 teams, $800K- **Expected Value**: Independent scaling, 25% infra cost reduction ### Phase 3: Core (Months 15-24)- **Goal**: Complete decoupling- Order Processing (complex)- Payment Processing- User Management- **Investment**: 4 teams, $1.2M- **Expected Value**: Full team autonomy, 50% faster feature delivery ## Key Risks 1. **Data Coupling** (High): 47% of services share data dependencies - Mitigation: Event-driven synchronization, phased data migration 2. **Skills Gap** (Medium): Limited distributed systems experience - Mitigation: Training program, external consulting for Phase 1 3. **Executive Patience** (Medium): 24-month timeline may face pressure - Mitigation: Quarterly value demonstrations, metrics dashboard ## Success Metrics - [ ] 2x deployment frequency by Month 12- [ ] 30% reduction in incident MTTR by Month 18- [ ] Zero monolith deployments required for new features by Month 24- [ ] 15% infrastructure cost reduction through independent scalingYou now have the framework for conducting rigorous migration assessments. The next page explores team structure considerations—how to organize engineering teams for successful migration execution and long-term microservices ownership.